Simulation (Ring B)

Simulation answers questions with evidence-backed precedent (retrieval-augmented, not generative), not causal claims.

API surface

• Blast radius: what entities might be affected?
• Similar trajectories: retrieve precedents.
• Change simulation: predict outcomes given proposed changes.

Outputs

• Evidence (trajectory_ids, matched features)
• Confidence (sample size smoothing, recency decay, variance penalty)
• algorithm_version, feature_schema_version

Inputs

• Projections from trajectories: co-occurrence, transitions, structural signatures, outcome correlations.

Determinism

• Fixed iteration orders and hashing; reproducible given the same projection state and inputs.